Every month we pick out a handful of games for our Fantasy Metacritic. We each predict the score that each game will be awarded on Metacritic. For releases on multiple platforms we decide beforehand for which platform we predict. The Metacritic score is registered three days after release. The difference between our predictions and the actual Metacritic score are awarded as points. Whoever scores the fewest points was the most accurate and wins!
For our first month, we started off towards the end of January by predicting the Metacritic score for the innovative rogue-like sci-fi Genesis Alpha One. Two mid-month FPS games; the open world Far Cry New Dawn and story-driven Metro Exodus, were our next games and finally EA‘s Anthem and Paradox‘ Stellaris: Console Edition rounded off the month.
Here’s how we did this month. Cursive numbers indicate PS4 version, regular font indicates PC version. Number in brackets is how far off we were, and finally, total is how many points we accumulated (i.e. how many points wrong we were in total) this month!
|Genesis Alpha One||75/73||77(+2)||85(+10)||78(+5)||75(+2)|
|Far Cry New Dawn||73/73||72(-1)||82(+9)||79(+6)||80(+7)|
|Stellaris: Console Edition||75||92(+17)||75(+/-0)||77(+2)||74(-1)|
Here how the table looks then after one month:
Reactions and Comments
This month Gman did the best, reflecting that “The only reason I’m winning is because Anthem sucked.” Indeed it seems that apart from Doodle’s in generally poor guesses towards the second half of the month (despite a promising start), it was indeed Anthem that separated us this month!
As SLEEVEmonkey puts it: “These results go to show that predicting how good or bad a game will be is only a small part of Fantasy Metacritic. What really matters is predicting how the reviewers will score a game.” This is certainly true and we are currently working on an article looking at reviewers and reviewer accuracy.
He goes on “We all predicted that Anthem was going to be a flop, however I certainly did not expect the reviewers to so heavily punish a AAA game from EA, and unfortunately it cost me in this round.” Likewise, Pilgrim states that “Basically we all thought, except Gman, that the reviewers were going to stroke EA the right way about their bland looter shooter, but turns out we were wrong!“
We’re all gearing up for next month now, busily setting our predictions for March’s upcoming selected games. While most of us are keeping our cards close to our chest, SLEEVEmonkey reveals: “I still don’t think this is in any way indicative of a shift by reviewers to actually scoring games in line with player opinions, so you can expect to see me employing the same strategy next round!“